Recording positive growth for the second month in a row, the exports grew by 9.3 per cent in December 2009 suggesting that the country’s trade is coming out of the economic blues.
Imports, which are a reflection on the domestic economic activity as well as exports, too turned positive after recording long 11 months of negative growth, registering an impressive growth of 27.2 per cent in December.
After falling for 13 straight months, in November 2009 exports grew by 18.2 per cent– for the first time since the global financial meltdown engulfed the world.
On the increased trade activity, Rakesh Mohan Joshi of Indian Institute of Foreign Trade said, “imports turnaround is due to the revival in the country’s industrial activities. We import inputs for exports.”
Exports in December increased to $14.6 billion from $13.36 billion a year ago, marking a reversal of declines that had set in since October 2008 due to demand slump in the key global markets.
December imports went up to $24.75 billion from $19.45 billion in December 2008, leading to a narrowed trade gap of $10.14 billion during the month against $6.08 billion in the year-ago period.
“The figures are clearly reflecting that the economy is coming on the track,” Joshi said. However, he added, “we need to be remain cautious.”
FIEO president A Sakthivel said the growth in imports reflects the effect of double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector.
However, for the April-December period, exports dropped by 20.3 per cent to $117.58 billion from $147.56 billion.
“We expect there would a 5 per cent decline in exports in 2009-10 over the last fiscal. In 2010-11, we can expect a 10 per cent growth as there would be recovery in the rest of the world,” HDFC Bank [ Get Quote ] economist Jyotinder Kaur said.
Despite the positive growth, exports in the current fiscal are likely to remain much lower than the $185-billion worth of shipments last year, Sakthivel pointed out.
Meanwhile, the country’s oil imports also went up by 42.8 per cent, second month in a row, to $6.53 billion in December 2009 compared to $4.57 billion a year ago.
According to the data, oil imports during the first nine months of this fiscal was $56.91 billion against $81.10 billion April-December 2008-09.
Non-oil imports in the month grew by 22.4 per cent to $18.21 billion from $14.87 billion in December 2008.
Imports during April-December of this fiscal were $193.82 billion, 23.6 per cent lower than $253.80 billion in the year ago period.
As per the data, non-oil imports were 20.7 per cent lower at $136.91 billion during the first nine months of this fiscal than the $172.70 billion in the comparable period last year.
Trade gap during the first nine of the current fiscal was $76.24 billion compared to $106.24 billion in the same period last year.
www.warren-knight.com thanks rediff.com